荡寇风云

前段时间，法国在俄乌问题上颇出风头，马克龙公然鼓吹对乌出兵，让世人看到了法国罕见的强硬。    China's growth in exports is being reshaped by a structural upgrade in mechanical and electrical products, with economists and exporters saying that high-tech, green and high-value goods are emerging as new engines of growth amid rising global trade barriers and supply chain uncertainties.     They said that demand for artificial intelligence hardware, advanced manufacturing products and tech-intensive green goods, including AI servers, 3D printers, industrial robots and lithium batteries, is likely to remain strong this year, as Chinese manufacturers continue moving up the value chain and strengthening their competitiveness in global markets.    According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's foreign trade grew by 17.3 percent year-on-year to reach 30.13 trillion yuan ($4.5 trillion) in the first seven months of 2026.    While exports rose 14 percent year-on-year to 17.44 trillion yuan, imports surged 22 percent year-on-year to 12.69 trillion yuan, the data revealed.    Sheana Yue, senior Asia economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said that strong electronics and machinery exports, coupled with rising imports of industrial inputs, suggest that AI and electrification would remain key forces shaping global manufacturing.    "China's competitiveness in AI hardware, electric vehicles and other high-value products will allow it to continue gaining global export market share," she said, warning that persistent disruption in the Middle East would keep energy and transport costs elevated.    Latest customs data showed that in the first seven months, exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.12 trillion yuan, surging 21.2 percent year-on-year and accounting for 63.8 percent of China's total exports.    The shift toward a higher-quality and more sustainable trade structure also aligns with China's policy priorities. A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee in late July called for efforts to promote more balanced trade growth and expand mutually beneficial international economic and trade cooperation.    Jiang Ping, a professor of foreign trade at the Beijing-based University of International Business and Economics, said that China's faster import growth reflected recovering domestic demand, with stronger consumption, industrial activity and investment suggesting that the economy was gaining momentum and pro-growth policies were taking effect.    Marc Ostwald, chief economist at the London-based ADM Investor Services International, said that China's external trade has remained resilient this year, with trade links with Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South America continuing to expand.    Meanwhile, China's trade with the United States has also shown signs of improvement. In the first seven months, two-way trade declined 1.6 percent year-on-year, narrowing from a 3.6 percent decline in the first half, customs data showed.    In July alone, China-US trade increased 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.    Gao Shiwang, spokesperson for the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products in Beijing, said that high-tech and high-value-added products are more resilient to external shocks, supported by stronger demand, technological advantages and customer loyalty.    "Compared with lower-end goods, they are better positioned to withstand market volatility and trade frictions," said Gao.    With power grids undergoing upgrades in many parts of the world, Qingdao Qingdian Transformer Co, a power transformer manufacturer in Qingdao, Shan­dong province, saw its exports grow by 100 percent year-on-year to reach 120 million yuan between January and July, statistics from Qingdao Customs showed.    "Foreign customers once chose Chinese transformers mainly for price advantages, but quality, technology and delivery efficiency have become key strengths," said Li Changchun, chairman of the company.    GreaTech Substrates Co, a manufacturer of packaging substrates headquartered in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, has deepened its integration into global semiconductor supply chains through overseas expansion, according to information released by Huangpu Customs in Guangdong.    "We have established stable supply channels in Southeast Asia," said Wu Jianhang, the company's head of customs affairs.    Wu said the company's high-density, ultrathin printed circuit boards are shipped to its clients' plants in Southeast Asia for assembly and integration before becoming components in advanced chips supplied to global markets.    In Northeast China's Liaoning province, exports of mechanical and electrical products also amounted to 140.51 billion yuan in the first seven months, up 18.6 percent year-on-year, accounting for 53.3 percent of the province's total exports during the period, data from Shenyang Customs showed.                    。

B | 但不久前，法国身上却又发生这样两件尴尬事。

美军被尼日尔驱逐一事让美国颇为难堪，在非洲国家“下逐客令”问题，法国和美国可谓难兄难弟。法国先后被马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔要求撤军，而今，又一西非国家质疑起法国驻军。

毫无疑问，法国是松科的头号针对对象。首先，法国曾对塞内加尔实施殖民统治；其次，松科本人此前没少指控法国对塞内加尔的干涉；第三，马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔三国组成的“萨赫勒国家联盟”几乎是公然站到法国的对立面，松科却公然宣布处方“萨赫勒国家联盟”，明显是在向“萨赫勒国家联盟”靠拢，不禁让人怀疑，塞内加尔也将效仿萨赫勒国家。

D |

另外，法国目前在塞内加尔驻军约为350人，对塞内加尔而言，就算法国不愿撤军，驱逐这350人也颇有可行性。

对法国而言，一旦法国对塞内加尔彻底失控，西共体将进一步撕裂，加剧法国在西非势力的萎缩，不禁让人怀疑，法国在西非的影响力是否很快将迎来末日，法国是否会被彻底赶出非洲。

E | 而一旦失去非洲的经济“输血”，法国的综合实力必将大打折扣。法国前总统希拉克可曾犀利地指出，没有非洲的法国将沦为第三世界国家。

近日，法国突然指控国指控阿塞拜疆在法国统治的地盘煽动叛乱。

据悉，新喀里多尼亚是法国统治的太平洋岛屿，在法国看来，阿塞拜疆似乎有支持新喀里多尼亚独立之嫌。然而，阿塞拜疆回应称，法国应停止对阿塞拜疆的无端指控，而应关注自己对海外领土的无端政策。

F | 不难看出，阿塞拜疆态度很强硬，也颇有对法国不满的味道，阿塞拜疆这番回应，只怕会加重法国对阿塞拜疆立场和背后动作的怀疑。

那么，阿塞拜疆为何会和法国较上劲？关键还在于法国对亚美尼亚的支持。阿塞拜疆没少对欧盟在亚阿冲突中支持亚美尼亚表示不满，甚至点名批评法国，称法国对亚美尼亚提供军事援助可能导致新的武装冲突。这似乎意味着，阿塞拜疆有理由报复法国，对法国而言，接下来，法国只怕不得不提升对阿塞拜疆动向的警惕。

G |

不过，如果按照法国的说法，连阿塞拜疆都能将手伸到太平洋，阿塞拜疆都有这么大能量能让法国如此忌惮头疼，只怕难堪的反而是法国，让人更加质疑法国应对海外领土、海外势力问题上无力。